在這裡收聽這一集:
成績單
[00:00:03] 問:DWill比特幣受到美聯儲另一次加息的影響?我們，我們上週的 CPI 讀數為 9.1%。您最初的想法和反應是什麼，
[00:00:17] Dylan:是的。我的意思是，我認為它是，通貨膨脹是，仍然是，仍然猖獗。我認為那是，這主要是，你開始看到通貨膨脹的基本效應下降了一點，而不是下降，但我們已經看到大宗商品價格大幅上漲。所以我認為，同比通脹肯定已經達到頂峰。
我的意思是，我我不是，我自己沒有運行數據。我不是，我不是，那種勞工統計局。我不是，我實際上並沒有計算這些東西。.，但是，我認為，你知道，真正的關鍵是勞動力市場。這就是美聯儲試圖擠出的一點點。
所以通貨膨脹仍然有點像，我認為你可以，你可以看到它達到 9%、9% 或者可能達到 10，對吧。但。它會持續很長時間。存在結構性問題，以及商品和能源市場。而且，你知道，去通脹，過去的去通脹時代，在這裡有些死。
還有很多待解決，隨著我們前進。
[00:01:25] 問:所以我只想在 Twitter 空間上提醒大家，你會看到我們所有漂亮的漂亮面孔。耶穌。我不能說話。是星期一。所以對不起，在 YouTube 上，我們稍後會瀏覽一些圖表。
你知道，看，對我來說，汽油價格實際上奇怪地下降了每加侖 50 美分。所以我仍然坐在5美元以上。就像你和迪倫在納什維爾 P 區有什麼?佛蒙特州的情況如何?
[00:01:55] P:伙計。我認為，
我認為這只是食品價格。就像食品價格越來越高，而且，它的，它是瘋狂的。這也很有趣。對我來說非常有趣的是，你知道，我總是著迷於將實際發生的事情與官方政府敘述的變化分開。
因此，政府越是承認這些價格上漲.，對我來說，這幾乎是比實際價格本身更強的信號。因此，我覺得我們已經看到了更多關於公開敘述的情況。
[00:02:35] 問:由於您迴避了這個問題，因此請進一步擴展。對不起，迪倫。不，不。我
[00:02:39] P:我想說，我的意思是，食品價格對我來說很重要。你說汽油對你來說已經下降了，但是，你知道，取消了我經常吃的貓糧，為了多坐，省錢。，你知道，這已經上升了，現在食物，顯然像，你知道的，水果蔬菜。
我很驚訝，成本，我，我估計這也與燃料價格有關，但不確定。
[00:03:04] 問:塗料。是的。我的意思是，我只是，
[00:03:05] Dylan:我剛買了一輛輕便摩托車，所以我得到了 80 加侖。我必須每加侖跑 80 英里。.你知道，這很棒。我的意思是，我不確定實際的汽油價格。我真的不看。，
[00:03:17] 問:但有錢一定很好。，好吧。因此，讓我們深入研究其中的一些內容。我，我和 Dylan 在輕便摩托車上。
我的意思是，說實話，我自己也在看電動自行車，然後那些電動自行車的價格就和二手摩托車一樣高。所以我可能活不到今年年底，所以我離題了。我們得到了我們所看到的 C CPI n bers。人們談論銅博士以及銅價如何像 P 一樣成為商品。
或者正如我所提到的，天然氣價格開始下降。你確實看到一些食品價格在攀升。我認為這只是高油價的滯後效應。不過這只是我個人的看法。 Dylan，商品領域有哪些你關注的東西?正確的。
[00:04:04] Dylan:是的，我的意思是，肯定在看銅。銅與通脹預期之間的關係非常有趣。在過去的十年裡，它就像 10 年遠期通脹預期幾乎是一對一的，對於銅，銅與金的比率，Lynn Alden 喜歡談論它。這真的是，如果你將銅金比例與類似的工業 PMI 疊加，你會看到一個非常非常有趣的關係。在一般商品市場上，我認為能源今天已經反彈。我們只是處於不同的時代，我們只是處於不同的時代，通貨膨脹。是的。我的意思是，也許一年中的逐月，逐年，通貨膨脹的變化率可能會減慢，但你必須了解通貨膨脹複合。
即使通貨膨脹，你知道，從現在開始的一年，不是 9%，而是 4%，你還得把 9% 乘以 4%。的，那個衍生品，， 正在下降的通貨膨脹。但是，你知道，事實上，隨著時間的推移，一切都變得越來越昂貴。
我想，你知道，我們喜歡談論大局。對於比特幣，我們有自己的論點。是，是這種資產。顯然人們會說，嘿，比特幣不是通脹對沖。，你知道，市場已經證明，比特幣不是一年比一年的 CPI，而是價格、指數、通脹、對沖。
但我們的觀點是，比特幣是一種貨幣對沖。當我們審視全球債券市場時，我們仍然相信，實際收益率已經結束。在接下來的幾年裡，將、將、有目的地持有、消極。正確的?所以，作為一種資產類別的固定收益肯定會讓你賠錢。
比特幣顯然表現不佳，在過去，你知道，一年左右。但有點，它仍然，它是你知道，2020 年 1 月 20 日的開盤價仍然超過 2020 年，而低於 60、40 個投資組合。正確的。所以，我有點轉向這裡。，我們，我們開始談論商品，但是，是的，我，我認為結構性商品，你知道，我們只看到俄羅斯，烏克蘭戰爭，以及全球化的逆轉，從長遠來看，你會看到很多壓力，在商品壓力上。
但是像經濟衰退之類的東西就像美聯儲正試圖設計的一種需求崩潰。這些肯定會影響利潤率並降低價格。
[00:06:30] 問:我的意思是，你看，我們經常來來往往，但這在很大程度上是因為一切似乎都相互聯繫和交織在一起.
看看我們上週得到的 CPI 讀數，似乎有潛力。下週加息 75 個基點實際上正在減少。加息一百個基點的可能性可能就在我們家門口。我們能否談談這些，基金利率的提高可能對市場產生什麼影響，正如我們所看到的，我們已經看到他們逐步提高利率，我們已經看到了效果它已經發生了。
我的意思是，我們正處於這個熊市之中。你的期望是什麼?你準備如何?
[00:07:16] 迪倫:是的。我的意思是，對我來說最有趣的是，你看到，實際上，債券市場，就像稱美聯儲虛張聲勢，並且說，如果你看歐洲美元期貨曲線，它是，而且這個是上週的數據。
所以我無法準確地告訴你今天的數據，但今年 12 月聯邦基金利率達到了 3.8%、3.9% 的最高點。然後實際上，如果你像明年 12 月一樣，它的聯邦基金利率在 3.2% 左右，所以你看到實際上市場的預期是美聯儲實際上會在 2023 年全年降息，只是基於結構上的債務太多了。
如果你看到，你知道，實際上是美聯儲。走這麼遠，你會看到這種，這種巨大的崩潰，因為，因為有多少債務，有多少，你知道，再次，就像這是一個結構性問題。所以你有點有這個，這個縮小的視圖。，以及為什麼像很多比特幣人，或者很多只是宏觀的傢伙，你知道的，儘管過去四五個月發生了什麼事，或者，你知道，今年剩下的時間會發生什麼，為什麼他們會說，嘿，你知道，這是，這是，這都是一場比賽，而且他們會再次打印。
是的。其中，你知道，債務和人口統計的長期結構性問題，你知道，全世界的人口統計圖是超級醜陋的。所以當你有這些巨大的債務負擔和所有這些，一種權利和承諾，世界各地的政府，已經給了他們的公民公民，你知道，它導致中央銀行只有一個，你知道，只有一條路，那就是，在貨幣下的辯論會更多，而且，你知道，打印更多的借據來覆蓋，以兌現這些承諾。
[00:08:54] 問:所以對於那些喜歡我的人來說，如何快速查找並確定我們所處的位置。目前的聯邦基金利率約為 1.5 至 1.7。所以還有很多跑道要走。，。我的意思是，我想，我真的想打破這個，迪倫，如果我錯了，請糾正我。如果我認為很多比特幣人都在等待美聯儲立場的逆轉，這就是，這將是聯邦基金的下降暗示聯邦基金利率將是 20 日、24 日的某個時候，市場期望他們不得不改變立場。
那麼這是一種準確的解讀方式嗎?
[00:09:34] 迪倫:2023 年。是的。哦，我的意思是，你可以，你可以出去看看歐元的特點。，原來歐元是BEC它不是，它與歐元無關。這與歐洲銀行有美元定期存款這一事實有關。
所以，歐元，歐元美元，或歐元，你知道，歐洲美元期貨的命名是，，有點兒。它最初就像離岸聯邦基金期貨，但現在在芝加哥商品交易所，它基本上是一種投機或對沖利率的方式。正確的。市場在說，你知道，嘿，美聯儲會在這裡加息。
他們已經說過了，但它會下降，因為你知道，債券市場明白它在從長遠來看，我認為你真正看到了什麼
當你在看的時候，就像 Dixie 這樣的東西，它的大多數只是與歐元和日元掛鉤，這兩者，你知道，世界第二和第三大貨幣，在這一年裡，我對美元的匯率大幅貶值。因為這些人是能源淨進口國，對吧?
所以他們進口他們的能源，中央銀行，日本央行和歐洲央行正在繼續他們的，你知道的，史詩般的貨幣刺激，對吧?日本央行。是一種實施收益率曲線控制。他們將他們的債券收益率限制在 25 個基點，而歐元區，你知道，已經，現在，是超級破碎的，而且，你知道，歐元區內的弱弱國家，比如，就像希臘和意大利一樣，它們對 GDP 的債務太多了。
他們不得不限制息差，對嗎?因此，這些國家的債券收益率因違約風險而遠高於德國。儘管德國在俄羅斯的所有動態中處於非常艱難的境地。因此，他們必須介入並實際上限制這些利差，這是印鈔或量化寬鬆的另一種形式，甚至可能是收益率曲線控制。
我認為他們是將其稱為某種反碎片化、碎片化或類似的東西。但基本上你有這種，你知道，第二和第三大中央銀行正在實施某種貨幣政策，在美聯儲收緊政策時發瘋了。所以你看到美元指數再次飆升，相對於其他貨幣，相對於其他法定貨幣，主要是歐元和日元，美元指數飆升。
傳統上，你知道，如果我們回到這種，你知道的，全球貨幣體系，全球貨幣秩序的歷史。美元，你知道，基本上是在布雷特和伍茲之後，或者如果你想看看它，你知道，在尼克松衝擊之後，對吧?當它是純自由流動的菲亞特時，美元走強的時期恰逢全球經濟大衰退。
這是有原因的。這是因為那裡有太多以美元計價的債務。所以現在我們看到美元相對走強，儘管美元相對於商品和實物商品大幅走弱和服務。它相對於其他貨幣正在走強，這就是你看到出現大規模債務危機的地方，對嗎?
所以，你知道，任何人，任何新興市場，無論你是知道，無論是歐洲公司還是，或者只是某種，外國實體，對吧?如果他們有美元計價的債務，他們就必須出售美元資產。那可能是國債。那可能是我們的股票。那可能是比特幣，甚至是對的。就像任何東西一樣，它有一個美元匯率。
他們必須出售這些資產來彌補他們的美元負債。你基本上看到了美元本身的空頭擠壓，這就是為什麼，美元走強與衰退同時發生，而且通常，你知道，與多少美元有關債務就在那裡。
而且，最瘋狂的事情是它無法量化。有，有，有這麼多它被稱為，你知道，歐元，對吧?沒有人知道歐元市場的規模。沒有人知道實際的美元債務有多少。它非常不透明。所以，你知道，我們可以看到這些，這些非常可怕的時刻，美元飆升，風險被拋售。
而且，實際上，如果我們回顧一下，比如 3 月20. 你看到了，世界上最大的市場，國債市場，它去了，它是流動性的，它沒有投標，在一個證券上，因為，有很多外國人在賣國債來彌補那個，那個美元，那個美元空頭頭寸，對。
美元空頭，意思是，美元計價的債務。所以這些都是大局問題，但這就是，你知道的，強勢美元。為什麼，為什麼要關注 Dixie，這就是為什麼，因為，你知道，我們有這些，這些巨大的問題，這些問題已經積累了幾十年，你知道，是系統性的。
[00:14:10] 問:我想快速回到 Dixie 圖表。克里斯，如果你不介意把它拉上來，每個在 Twitter 上收聽的人，只是提醒一下，我們已經固定在頂部。你可以跳到 YouTube 上，在那裡你可以真正看到我們漂亮的面孔和我現在引用的圖表。
我只是，我們正在猜測片刻。所以請耐心等待，迪倫，但是。您是否期望 Dixie 已經達到頂峰，或者它還有繼續上漲的空間?從歷史上看，您知道，2002 年 20 年的頂峰或 1985 年的頂峰意味著我們仍然有大量的跑道仍然要走，但也可能有一個論點，即每個峰值都已經消退並且變得越來越不嚴重。
很好奇你是否認為 Dixie 已經達到頂峰或者這些期望可能會怎樣是。
[00:14:58] 迪倫:是的。我的意思是，好吧。就像我一樣，我不是福特，貨幣交易員，就像我不是，你知道，我不是，我不是在交易美元美元年終美元歐元。但就像，就像這些市場的外部觀察者，就像，你知道的，看看這些其他市場的結構性問題，別管美聯儲說，嘿，我們正在收緊政策，而這些其他中央銀行卻在說，你知道，我們仍在印刷。
我們仍在通過債務貨幣化。這些問題，這些國家是能源的淨進口國，結構性能源，赤字，世界正在經歷。，你知道，就在今天，今天早上，俄羅斯，就像，天然氣船頭說，嘿，我們不會再向德國輸送汽油了。
對嗎?有，你知道，德國歐洲的工廠，有點像，歐洲經濟的最大驅動力，有巨大的能源赤字，不能像，只是，用一個，你知道，用另一個來解決那種創可貼，對吧?沒有，沒有簡單的方法可以解決這個問題。因此，您在歐元中看到的疲軟，您在其他貨幣相對於美元中看到的疲軟，更不用說美元正在走強的事實，因為美聯儲應該試圖這樣做.
回滾並降低資產負債表。你知道，這些動態正在發生變化。所以我們今天看到了一點點鬆了一口氣。我認為 Dixie 下跌了 1% 左右，這就像我們在貨幣市場上看到的這些變動是非常非常大的。就像這些是巨大的，這些都是巨大的舉動。
但我不認為它已經停止了。是的，我們，實際上，我想如果你，如果你想去 Bitcoin Magazine Pro，我正在嘗試，試圖立即找到我的 Twitter 提要以鏈接。但我們上週談了一點,, 1980 年代的廣場協議。這是繼保羅·沃爾克之後，將利率提高 20%，你知道，這是美國在 70 年代經歷的那種國內通脹，試圖阻止滯脹環境。
你看到，美元兌一籃子其他貨幣大幅走強。所以世界走到了一起，因為就像美國一樣，就像美元一樣，隨著美元走高，美國開始出現巨額赤字，巨額經常賬戶赤字。所以世界走到了一起，就像，嘿，我們得解決這個問題。
這，這不理想。，這是典型的三重困境，對吧?美元走強，美國祇是在世界上買東西。這就像一個結構性問題，但是，這是，你知道，我們今天仍然看到這些東西。世界，如果我們，如果美元兌這些其他貨幣升值太多，很大，很大問題出現了。
所以，你知道，廣場協議本質上是所有這些世界領導人聚在一起說，嘿，我們需要，我們需要真正削弱美元，並採取措施這是因為你知道，全球經濟無法運轉。這個。所以，你知道，也許我們會看到某種 Plaza cord 2.0，無論是明確的還是隱含的。
但你知道，美元越長，這裡的美元或越往上走，問題就越多，不管是不是在表面之下，你知道，全球經濟將面臨的問題。
[00:18:05] 問:我想跳到幻燈片 5，因為了解我，我會誤解這一點，這是美國經常賬戶餘額佔 GDP 的百分比。向我們介紹您在這裡看到的內容。
[00:18:20] Dylan:是的。所以經常賬戶，赤字或盈餘，基本上就是你出口或進口的數量。所以如果你，如果你把它與國家的國內生產總值標準化，這對我們來說是對的，對，但你看到從本質上講，美國是世界儲備貨幣，這是羅伯特·特里豐在 60 年代看到的。
就像任何人一樣，它是世界儲備貨幣。任何國家都將不得不基本上出現赤字來為世界提供流動性。如果他們，如果你不出現赤字，那麼世界將面臨衰退。所以他看到了，他看到了這位經濟學家羅伯特·特里恩，他在 60 年代看到了這一點。
基本上，如果你看一下美元強勢時期，這個問題，這個問題變得更糟了。所以現在你有點看到，我們的經常賬戶赤字實際上是強勢美元，雖然它，你知道，在短期內，可能是一件好事，因為我們可以，你知道，買進其他人的出口，而且，你知道，以便宜的價格購買世界上的商品。
它掏空了美國製造業、國內製造業的基礎，並導致高度金融化我們的經濟，實際上讓外國人，因為我們正在為世界其他地方提供我們所有的美元並負債。它允許外國人舀取我們所有的國內資產。
所以這是，美元作為世界儲備貨幣的長期問題，為什麼在短期內，這可能是一件好事，因為你，你的當地貨幣，美國，你知道，在國內，美元是一個世界，是一個世界。，你知道，貨幣是一個，是一個記賬單位。，這在短期內是一件好事，但從長遠來看，它顯示了這些非常非常大的結構性問題的種子，這些問題會隨著時間的推移繼續惡化。所以，你知道，現在我們GDP的5%、4%和0.5%是赤字，我們的經常賬戶赤字。我們進口的比我們出口的多得多，隨著時間的推移，隨著部落的發展，這種情況會繼續惡化。
[00:20:27] 問:所以這聽起來像是根據這張圖表和我們的’正在看到，我們在美國越來越難讓外國人購買我們的商品。這聽起來對我們的經濟和美元的未來非常非常有希望，我想流行轉到第 7 張幻燈片，因為實際上你上週發了一條推文並將這張圖表放在我的雷達上，迪倫，幾乎是在嘲笑實際發生的事情，基於美聯儲試圖告訴人們的內容和結果CPI 打印。
這個低於 INFR 通脹區域的紅色收益率現在已經急劇蔓延。為什麼有人應該擔心這個?比如，什麼是，你在看什麼。.
[00:21:13] Dylan:是的，我的意思是，這是給那些不看圖表的人的。這只是我們每年的 CPI，以及 10 年期國債收益率。而且，它的意思是，自 1981 年以來，自利率達到頂峰以來，Voker 控制了通貨膨脹，有這個，你知道，債券實際收益率牛市的 40 年長期趨勢。
通貨膨脹低於債券收益率。如果您顯然喜歡債券之類的長期債務，而不是國庫券或國庫券，因為由於該債務的期限導致收益率下降，該債務的價值仍在繼續上升。所以你看到了從 1980 年代到 1981 年到 20、20 或 2021 年這個巨大的長期債券牛市。
我認為，我認為 2020 年是真正的，你知道，真正的債券牛市結束了，只是基於通貨膨脹，而且，和，債券收益率在哪裡。所以現在，你知道，我們有點看到，無論是，你知道，有些人仍然認為這只是一種偏差。
但我認為我們已經看到了這種情況。債券真正牛市的頂部。所以現在，你知道，10 年期國債是否浮動在 3% 左右。我不知道那是什麼。這完全出乎我的意料。你知道，9% 的年通脹率。
再說一次，即使回到 4%、5%，你仍然有一個，你知道，我們仍在見證金融。里昂的利率需要大大低於通貨膨脹率，以侵蝕這筆債務的實際價值，聯邦債務的 GDP 超過 100。你在世界各地都有債務問題。
作為固定收益持有人，你有點，我的意思是，你可以，你可以投機債券，對吧?如果利率下降，那麼你，你知道，你可以從這些債券中獲得資本收益，但只是，只是，將債務視為一種資產類別，在 2020 年之後的 COVID 之後，可能，種類。
看到這一點，我們在過去的四五年裡看到了全球化的巨大趨勢，但實際上，你知道，在過去的幾十年裡，中國的老鼠和出口所有這些勞動力都流向了新興市場。我們看到了這個巨大的通貨緊縮時期，現在，你知道，比我聰明得多的人說，嘿，這一切都在逆轉。
像彼得·錫安、林恩·奧爾登這樣的工作已經寫了很多關於它的文章。如果我們看到這個全球化時期，你知道，在哪裡，在哪裡，一切都變得更便宜了，勞動力，商品和服務，所有這些東西都變得非常便宜。現在它正在逆轉，你會看到很多國家在他們的貿易中變得，保護主義。
隨著他們的出口，然後是這個，然後是低於收益率的通脹時期，，是，死了。正確的?因此，對於固定收益持有人，你不得不質疑，你知道，你對資產類別的長期配置，而且，你知道，想知道你的實際回報在未來十年或二。
[00:24:20] 問:我們都不是這個領域的專家，但我只是喜歡你的意見，因為我花了比我真正剖析和研究這些東西更多的時間，克里斯，如果你能把那張圖表拉回來。我認為我覺得這件事真正有趣的是在。 2007 年，2008 年金融危機。
您實際上看到 CPI 打印為負數，並且我們經歷了一段時間的通貨緊縮期，這給了收益率，這種表現在一段時間內非常強勁。，為什麼你剛剛，你的研究和你花在這些類型市場上的時間，為什麼我們沒有看到?
但是，或者我們會看到類似的東西?，如果以及何時實現更多的債券開始惡化?
[00:25:09] Dylan:是的，我的意思是，我，我不認為這是一個債券市場。，我認為這不是債券市場現象，我認為，基本上你在大金融危機中看到了通貨緊縮的波士頓。所以這當然是可能的。
我想可能會在很短的一段時間內，你知道，幾個月後說，你知道，如果你只是看看很多商品價格，年同比圖表，肯定有可能得到一種快速的通貨緊縮衝動或負的同比 CPI 讀數。我當然不認為它是，它是，它很可能，在短期內。
這會是那種，那將是美聯儲會，會介入的事情，你知道，那是通貨緊縮，當然不是，不是對基於信用的貨幣有利的東西。這就是為什麼他們總是以低通脹為目標。我的意思是，2% 是非常任意的。
但在法定信用體系中，通貨緊縮的蕭條是致命的。正確的?所以這就是為什麼，這只是，這對經濟來說是可怕的。這就是為什麼一般來說，當人們談論比特幣時，這是一種切線。你說，你知道，人們會說通縮貨幣行不通。
他們更多地考慮的是一種信貸收縮和基於分數的貨幣體系，而不是技術通縮，降低價格，，在我看來，這是兩件不同的事情。而且我認為，部分準備金信貸收縮通常會導致這種情況，你知道，CPI 逐年下降。
對，想像一下我們剛剛在比特幣空間，對，或者廣義的加密空間。在哪裡，你知道，所有這些承諾和所有這些無擔保信用都被炸毀了，我們沒有最後貸款人。所以匯率，坦克，你知道的，只是把它映射到金融危機，它不是比特幣或加密市場。
它是住房和抵押貸款支持證券，以及銀行系統，對吧?你會看到這種巨大的通貨緊縮衝動和所有這些部分儲備，承諾每一個都崩潰了。而且，所有這些資產價格暴跌，而且，你看到對商品和服務的需求下降。
所以，你知道，一年，一年，基礎合同的價格，對嗎?因此，政府介入並為系統注入了更多流動性以保持一切支撐。而比特幣，我們沒有最後貸款人，但那是一種終極者，一種，一種法定貨幣。空間或法幣貨幣體係是，當你看到那種紙牌的小房子開始崩潰時，它們會回到，到，你知道，到，試圖支撐它，因為，那是一種，一種自反性厄運循環，當這種情況開始發生時。
所以，你知道，他們，美聯儲，我認為很長一段時間都想要通脹，他們不希望通脹這麼高。但是，你知道，負 CPI 年復一年肯定也不是他們想要的。而且我認為你可以說實際上可能更糟，從他們試圖實現的目標來看。
[00:28:01] 問:所以你現在讓我們，讓我們，讓我們放下這一切的比特幣。因為每個在 Twitter 空間上收聽的人都應該知道，如果他們不是，比特幣正處於熊市中。全球經濟處於熊市中，而比特幣在全球經濟衰退期間從未真正存在過。從技術上講，我們並不在那裡。
從技術上講，我只是指確定我們是否處於衰退中的權力還沒有正式出來說，我只想說。你了解我，我喜歡推測。我知道你有多不喜歡它。忍受我吧。你在，你在接下來的 20 分鐘裡。所以你有點卡住了。
對不起，Dylan，如果下週再讀的話，我相信是下週。我們將獲得第二季度的 GDP 讀數。我們應該得到第二季度的負GDP讀數嗎?這將是連續兩個季度。 I E 將觸發技術性衰退。你認為市場會對此感到驚訝嗎?
我首先談論的是一般市場，其次是，你認為比特幣會對此感到驚訝嗎?我的意思是，比特幣的價格?
[00:29:12] Dylan:, no, I mean, I don’t think the technical definition matters., I think just, I, I,, am of the opinion that, and it certainly would love to be proven wrong here as a, as a, you know, a large holder of, of Bitcoin.
But I, I don’t think that the bottom is, is in, and maybe we, you know, we, or maybe, maybe that’s, you know, 17, five or whatever it was for Bitcoin,, is, is a generational low and would, would love for that to be the case., certainly there was an absolute truck load of, for selling that took place,, on the back of the three arrows capital liquidation and all the, you know, the counterparty risks that resulted from.
You know, and, and before that Luna as well, right? Just like, you know, hundreds of, thousands of Bitcoin were, were puked up in, in this,, kind of event. But,, if you just kind of take a step back and look at Bitcoin as just kind of another asset,, riding the liquidity tide., I think we’re what we’ve seen since,, November.
Or maybe if, if you look at like S&P since like January, since the market’s topped,, what you’ve seen is, is that the draw down the, the bear market equities has been about duration, right? So you’ve seen yields sore., and, and because of that, the, the duration assets, which Bitcoin is, is, you know, despite having no cash flow is paradoxically treated as a long duration.
Right. So, so bonds, equities,, specifically. Right., as yields have risen,, the discount,, the discounted kind of cash flow or the, the value of these, these equities,, as the yields have risen as the risk free rate has, has soared,, the, the kind of the, the future or the valuations of these companies and, and, or these assets have, have collapsed.
You’ve seen, you know, like say like,, I think treasury bonds have the worst start of the year,, in recorded history since like the 18 hundreds, which is somewhat of a crazy stat, right? So that’s like the first leg of this bear market., and I, I kind of was, was speculating and saying, Hey, like, I, I think if, if this is to get materially worse, if we are it, you know, amidst the recession, if the fed continues to, to hike,, and you know, we see nine, 10% inflation year over year, cons ers are really starting to feel it in their pockets.
You’re seeing European, you know, that the Eurozone is getting decimated,, because of. Right. It’s we, we could expect,, or should expect some form of, of earnings, right recession. So we’ve seen the duration,, part of the decline, get really rapidly priced in. And I think for the most part that’s done, right.
Not talking about Bitcoin, but equity markets specifically, the next kind of leg. I would suspect if we are in a, in a true recession, in a true bear market., and again, you know, could be wrong here and, and the market’s been chopping around for a month as, as you know, people are trying to price all of this in, but,, traditionally what you would expect next is, is for the, is for the, kind of the earnings recession to be priced in.
So we’ve seen the duration, but I, you would expect that the EPS,, you know, revisions start to go lower., and, and, you know, if we are kind of seeing actual quantitative tightening, you’re gonna see,, credit. Start to credit risks, start to get priced in, into, into both bonds, corporate bonds and to equities.
And so,, when I think of Bitcoin, I just kind of,, another asset riding the liquidity tide, even though there is kind of,, its own exogenous variables. There is, you know, Bitcoin native derivative markets,, and certainly, you know, kind of the bounce we’ve seen Bitcoins trading at like 21, 21 6 right now, 21 7.
There’s, you know, derivative market dislocations that can, can get worked out. Dick Bitcoin’s been basically chopping around and it’s just derivative markets that have, have been sending it from 19 to 22 and back ping, ping pong back and forth for the last month or two., but if we are truly, you know, kind of in this,, global recession,, you know, potentially depression, right?
When you, when you just kind of. Quantify the energy deficit., there’s, there’s a whole lot of pain,, that that’s being felt out there., then I think, you know, the next leg lower for equities and the next kind of catalyst,, for risk off is that you see, you see these, these earning provisions really start to get hit.
And you’re seeing like, you know, people a lot smarter than myself, a lot more successful than myself. Like Michael Berry say that as well, right? He’s saying, Hey, the first leg was, was about duration and that was priced in very rapidly. But this bear market isn’t over,, and, and really you haven’t even seen the start of, of these earning downgrades and equity markets.
And so, you know, Bitcoin obviously seen a ton of for selling,, you know, derivative markets you saw, you saw a huge rise,, in, in open interest in BTC and Heath., but really, you know, and so, so you’re seeing like, I, that tells me a lot of people came in late and, and short hedged near the lows, which is, which is good thing, right.
Late shorts,, you know, are, are buyers eventually, but. And, you know, big butt, but really what you have to look out for is, is, you know, if there’s another leg lower in equities,, it’s, it’s highly, highly, highly unlikely that Bitcoin just magically. You know, is, is isolated and all of a sudden in the vacuand, and not kind of,, tied in as a, as a beta asset, like it’s been for the last six to eight months,, or really, you know, since, since March of 2020, it’s kind of just, it’s just,, a higher beta asset to, to the, you know, to, to the liquidity tied of, of the central bank, monetary policy.
And that’s not necessarily a bad thing. I think that’s, that’s actually a pretty natural progression., and that’s, you know, kind of always how big Bitcoin is gonna monetize, but that’s just my. That’s just my opinion. Someone said someone commented depression, boy,, depression now, boy. Oh boy. I don’t know about depression, but it’s certainly not looking.
I mean, I think,, the powers that we may try to avoid the word depression for as long as h anly possible until we’re so stuck deep in it, if we ever do reach that point., look, I love throwing out terms like bear market, cuz I’m a smooth brain trader like that,, in this short term window and the pullback that we’ve seen in Bitcoin.
Do you think that Bitcoin is in a bear market right now? Or do you think. This could be a moment where we’re gonna start to see that separation from the general market.
We’re 75% off the highest. My brother this certainly isn’t a bull market., not with that attitude.是的。 I mean, if this is the lows and great, you know, and,, you know, I’ll happily,, I’ll happily, you know, ride that, ride that up.
But, I, I don’t think we’re outta the woods yet., would be happy to be wrong. I mean, you’re seeing like a lot of, a lot of, kind of under the surface acc ulation. Right. But Bitcoin is like as an absolutely scarce asset,, and very, you know, in elastic, right. It’s it’s supply and elastic relative to demand.
It’s only a couple hundred thousand Bitcoin can send the market up, up or down. Right. So prices set at the margin., and if you just think about marginal buyers versus marginal sellers, obviously the last six months have brought a ton of just indiscriminate selling., but when you’re looking at the marginal buyer,, the pledges are certainly buying.
But if you think about the average PLE or the average market participant that has no Bitcoin exposure,, traditional legacy funds are risk off, they risk adverse, and they certainly don’t wanna be speculating on an 80 vol asset. Maybe a little bit of exposure here, there dipping their toe in right legacy participants.
I think with a new basal, requirements or the new basal, What is it called regulations? You know, banks can have 1% of their assets in Bitcoin now, which is great. I don’t expect, you know, banks to come, just start Aing into Bitcoin right away., but that’s, that’s good news., the, the, kind of the, the gap,, earnings,, accounting is the gap accounting,, for corporates is still very,, is, is just not ideal.
Right? So, mark-to-market losses,, but not mark to market gains., so, you know, if you buy Bitcoin at 20 K and it goes to 10 K, you have to, you have to take a hit on your earnings. Like you’ve seen that with MicroStrategy, so that’s still not ideal., and just in general, like I, and I’ve said this on previous streams and, and not to be pessimistic,, but.
In the crypto space broadly and Bitcoin’s obviously not isolated from it. This, this last two and a half months has been a huge black eye., and so really kind of any, any participants,, serious participants that, that, you know, would wanna get involved,, you know, have, have a whole lot to kind of sort through,, following this aftermath and.
There’s kind of a lot of just, you know, opaqueness that, that people maybe previously didn’t didn’t think was out there., so, you know, I think we’ll obviously Bitcoin, we’ll get to the other side of this and, and it’s still,, a legitimate macro asset, but just in terms of, you know, the start of a new bull market coming to coming forth,, and, and, you know, all time highs by, you know, whenever, it’s I think people should just, you know, taper their expectations a little bit because we still have some, some kind.
Clunkiness to sort through from the macro perspective. And also just from a, from a regulatory perspective, like I’m, I’m not one to call for regulations. And I, I certainly don’t like big government, but just in terms of sophisticated market participants, getting involved in this space,, the last two months have certainly not been,, you know,, advantageous to, to the effort there.
[00:38:29] P: Wait, but do you think, are you saying that that is related to regulation and that regulation would help there?
[00:38:35] Dylan:, I mean, you know, I, I I’m a little conflicted because you know, part of the, the, you know, ANCO capitalist libertarian in me says, you know, abolish S sec, not actually calling for abolishing SCC, but like, you know, I, I do have that, that,, that libertarian kind of free market mindset.
But at the same time you have legitimate fraudsters, like Celsius and Alex Masinsky. And, and it looks like a lot of the three arrow stuff. And, and the whole Luna debacle. And, you know, whether that’s a legitimate, honest effort at something,, unique or not,, is another debate, but just all of this has, you know, kind of, and, and also like the, the kind of the dollar,, the dollar banks, right.
That weren’t actually, you know, these, these kind of,, digital banks that weren’t actually banks and they were just. Aping the Treasuries into UST. Right? All of this stuff is, is, basically begging regulators to come in and, and,, and enforce,, with a, with a heavier hand. Right. So,, I don’t know if it would’ve stopped it or not.
I don’t know if the S sec didn’t do its job. Good enough. Like, I, I certainly am not calling for garyinsler to, to regulate more., but I just think. It’d be foolish to think that more regulation isn’t coming on the other side of, of, you know, the craziness of the last two months, unfortunately, or fortunately.
[00:39:57] Q: Okay. So we’re gonna abolish the S E C., what about the fed? Do you wanna get rid of the fed ?
[00:40:04] Dylan: I think eventually, I expect Bitcoin out outlast the fed , but we’re not there yet. We’re just, it’s just,, you know, that’s the reality. I mean, you can certainly abolish, abolish the fed with your own full note and audit your monetary policy.
But in terms of the Bitcoin exchange rate,, you know, that is most definitely not isolated from the actions of the fed,, and it would be foolish to think otherwise.
[00:40:27] Q: So I wanna show on slide n ber 10, the. Bitcoin and Dixie year over year change chart., this, I found super, super fascinating where it almost seemed as though the peaks in Bitcoin, when it was reaching all times, highs was actually correlated with when the Dixie was making new lows.
Let’s talk a little bit about that. What does that actually mean? And could the value of Bitcoin really be derived almost in the same way where. As earlier we talked about the Dxy, it’s not necessarily that the dollar was getting stronger. It was just all these other currencies that were measured against the dollar that were getting weaker in the same way, the dollar, which all of us are in the U.S. and American.
So excuse and forgive me to any of our foreigner, viewers and guests., this reads to me like the Bitcoin price was actually driven more by dollar weakness than anything else. Is that a fair conclusion?
[00:41:26] Dylan: No, I mean, I wouldn’t, I wouldn’t say that. I mean, obviously Bitcoin,, has its own kind of adoption cycles and waves, but I think,, certainly the, the cycles and, and the, the kind of the monetization bubbles, if you will, of Bitcoin are aided by easy credit,, and, and kind of,, these, these credit cycles. So dollar weakness,, is kind of,, traditionally, or if you just look at like the past, you know, decade or. Has been accompanied with,, these kind of,,, kind of upswings and growth and credit cycles,, and easy monetary policy. And so kind of when money’s easy, when money’s cheap, you’re gonna see.
And basically that’s, you know, it’s just like liquidity is, is very available., you know, Bitcoin crypto sees a, you know, kind of a huge upswing and, and kind of,, a new, I don’t know, a, a new cycle. Right. And so, and, and when conversely, when the dollar is strengthening,, and, and you see global liquidity pulling back,, and you know, a deceleration of credit growth, or even an outright contraction of credit growth,, you’re gonna see stuff.
Crypto like Bitcoin,, you know, takes a big hit, right? So if you look at, I like to just like the last two years,, because I think Bitcoin is, even though it’s still very immature, I think it’s matured a lot more than it’s, you know, 20 15, 20 16, 20 17,, cycle., if you look at the last two years of, of Dixie and BTC,, and inverse the charts and throw BTC in log scale,, just to see a little better.
It’s like pretty, pretty similar chart., and so I think that’s certainly telling,, and obviously, you know, the dollar can, can strengthen,, or, or weaken and, and those foreign currencies kind as well., there’s, there’s a bunch of variables there,, but you know, the dollar rules, all,, which is, which is why it’s, it’s such a significant chart and why I, I pay attention to it.
[00:43:19] Q: So the dollar will rain Supreme for some time, what are some events that you are keeping an eye on that will further weaken the dollar?
[00:43:29] Dylan: Personally I’m of the opinion., and this is, you know, I’m not expecting an imminent pivot and monetary policy. I think,, you know, anybody that’s kind of, you’ve been expecting to pivot every month of 2020, then you’ve gotten your shirt ripped off.
I mean, long term investors are, you know, unbothered. And I think that in the long term. Investment thesis of BTC is completely unchanged and, you know, potentially even strengthened,, through all of this craziness., but,, really I’m of the opinion that this, and, and at what level, and at what scale is, is anybody’s guess, I certainly don’t know, but I’m of the opinion that all of this craziness leads inevitably to the,, to the fed, turning to yield curve control in some form.
So whether that’s, you know, monetizing the, you know, treasuries at at 3%, Or, you know, 2% or 0%., I I’ve, I mean, we’ve seen interest rate policy,, you know, as a tool,, be used by the fed until the great financial crisis where quantitative easing became the primary tool., now, you know, post COVID, they, you know, QE, infinity, they monetize corporate debt.
Inflation’s raging. So they’re, they’re, you know, they’re having to try to walk that back. But I think inevitably whether it’s something in the Euro dollar system,, you know, whether it’s something in international markets, Maybe the, the legacy,, or the, you know, the, the banking system, although that’s, you know, from what I, from what I see, and from what I hear from other smart people is a lot stronger than, than the great financial crisis.
I think inevitably that the fed just due to the, the, kind of the, the size of our,, of the us debt load,, the size of the Euro dollar system and just, and just, you know, the cost of kind of rolling this debt over in, and just the sheer size of the us entitlements,, and, and, you know, kind of fiscal obligations.
The Fed needs to, to monetize, the us debt, especially also, if we’re talking about dollar strength, the, the more that the dollar strengthens, the more that, again, that, that foreigners have to sell dollars, nominated assets of which the largest of those, those asset buckets is us treasuries is us debt.
Right? So, the more that the Fed tightens the paradox. The more that they’re gonna have to pick up the slack,, from, from, you know, kind of buying,, buying the U.S. debt because foreigners are selling it off to cover their, to cover their debt loads,, in dollars. Right? So the U.S. fiscal outlook, and the, and the debt burden is in, is in a worse spot the stronger that the dollar becomes.
So I think,, I’m kind of, of the opinion that the Fed will obviously pivot. If that wasn’t in implied already., but I think the end game here is, is yield curve control, similar to what,, the ECB and the BOJ are doing., whether that’s, you know, implicitly or explicitly,, you know, that the us is going to in some form and it’s gonna be some weird form of acronym, and it’s gonna be some, you know, obscure facility that may, that sounds super complicated in the Plex, but it’s gonna be some form of, of debt monetization, and it’s gonna be, you know, another form of money for, to Gober.
I think that’s, you know, when the case for Bitcoin., you know, an absolutely scarce monetary asset that’s, you know,, with no counterparty risk is, is going to, you know, once again,, once again, shine,, we’re not there yet, but I think that’s, that’s, what’s coming and you know, that could be six months, 12 months, 18 months. I really don’t know.
[00:46:43] Q: Or according to the,, chart, we were looking at the Euro dollar curve. It’ll probably reverse sometime around December of 2022 and start changing in 2023. But what do I know?, I want to go over open interest with you before I let you go back to doing what you do best,, slide 11.
And this is the middle., the middle of the top chart in particular, where you’ve shown an arrow pointing up., can you just touch on what you’re seeing, what you’re paying attention to here?
[00:47:15] Dylan: Yeah, I mean, we’ve, Bitcoin’s been in a range it’s like 22 5 to,, you know, I mean the, the lows were like 17 five, but,, you know, 19 18 5. Then in that range we’ve seen open interests, like sky rocket. So the lows were pretty, pretty heavily shorted., you can see that with the funding rate, but,, I’m kind of, I kind of expect whatever way equities go.,, Bitcoin is gonna kind of we’re, we’re consolidating in this range, but over the next say month or two,, equities are also kind of trading in a range, whatever way those go.
You see just such a massive buildup of open interest and again, like for every short there’s a long, so if there’s around, you know, 260, say 260,000 BTC worth of stable coin margin, open interest, those are just agreements to buy and sell, and you know, buyers and sellers meet. So there’s always an equal amount of shorts and longs.
But you know, if unlike spot Bitcoin where you can just lock Bitcoin away, cold storage and never sell it., open interest, you know, a derivative contract, a Fu futures contract., if you, if you buy a futures contract, you eventually have to sell it,, especially for like a perp, right? For a perpetual futures contract.
What we’re talking about in particular. And if you short, you eventually have to cover, there’s no way. You can say you could, you could short dollars, you know, by selling dollars for BTC, which is not technically shorting, but you could sell dollars for BTC and never cover. Right. But with a, with a derivative contract, you always have to exit your position.
So there’s just been a huge, like a huge build up of open interest. You’re just seeing like stablecoin margin, open interest, sort it to all time, high levels, especially as a percentage of, of market., and so I kind of expect over the next month or two,, while we’re still chopping around this range, right?
Like the range high is at 22, 5 22 6 today. Got, got invalidated pretty hard, whatever way equities go next. In my opinion, you’re, you’re gonna see a pretty VI,, violent move,, from BTC, whether that’s higher or lower,, because of just how much open interest has, has built up in this range over the last two months, a lot over the last.
This is obviously a more price action, technical talk., but that’s, that’s kind of what I gather from, from all this OI buildup is that whenever the, the true range is broken and it’s probably gonna be, you know, as a result of, of equity market,, or legacy market volatility,, I think that’s, you know, that’s where you see a massive move and it could be lower and it, you know, potentially could be higher as well, which would certainly not be a, not be a bad thing for, for us BTC holders, but that’s what I’m looking at.
[00:49:51] Q: All right. My final question for you is, are you actually bullish or bearish then?
[00:49:59] Dylan:, I mean, I’m, I’m long term bullish. I’m not, I’m not too bullish,, over the next, you know, whatever,, a couple weeks months,, maybe maybe quarter. So I still think there’s downside., I, I do have some cash. I, you know, mostly from shorting all coins over the last couple months here, but, I’m, I’m waiting to deploy that.
So, you know, if the lows are in great,, I gotta purchase in at 17 eight,, and we’re happy for that to be marked the bottom, but,, I think that, you know, we, we potentially have some more downside here, so.
[00:50:34] Q:, Dylan, it’s always a pleasure getting to hear your perspective. And of course,, nothing said here should be deemed as financial advice.
Everyone should be going and doing their own due diligence. If you listen to a couple talking heads online or on Twitter, you’re fucking idiot who deserves to get wrecked. I don’t make the rules. I just share them., Dylan, do you mind just sharing with everyone Bitcoin magazine pro I mean, we pretty much have gone over the latest issue you guys released on Friday.
Do you wanna just share a little bit more about maybe what you’re cooking up?
[00:51:05] Dylan: Yeah, sure., most of what we talked about today is, is kind of just running through,, previous issues of, of Bitcoin magazine pro, which is a Bitcoin focused newsletter, obviously by the name., but we, we like to cover,, all the, all the, kind of the, the.
Happenings in, in global macro,, in equity markets,, we cover Bitcoin matting,, with, with particular focus about once a week or so., so yeah, I mean, we, we, we put out free issues. We put out, we have a paid tier as well., but,, Sam and I,, Sam rule who’s, who’s out today,, with some family stuff, but,, we’re kind of the, the engine behind this and we have a great team supporting us.
Check that out. The Lincoln is in my bio,, but we’re putting. For the most part daily content, kind of around all this stuff. So if you, if you like to talk today, if you liked,,, what you saw, if you’re watching on YouTube, then, then give it a check out and appreciate everyone that tune.
[00:51:58] Q: I cannot stress how much signal comes out of this newsletter, how much I learn on a regular basis by subscribing there’s a free tier.
It costs you nothing., but your time and your time will be well spent by reading the words that Dylan and Sam and their team put together. So highly recommended. If you are not already subscribed to pop on over and subscribe to the free tier, it’ll start there., and of course, just a reminder to everyone listening, both on YouTube on Twitter,, Bitcoin Amsterdam is coming up.
Ticket prices will be going up on Friday, so be sure to lock it in. I am deep into the negotiations of trying to convince everyone at Bitcoin mag. Okay, cool. CKS outta the spaces. I am really trying hard to be able to smoke weed with you guys at Bitcoin Amsterdam. So buy your tickets and we’ll have a blast.
It’s gonna be the first. Bitcoin are the biggest Bitcoin conference in all of Europe, shoot us DMs with people you’d like to see talk, shoot us DMS with people or events or things that you’d like to see happen. There sound money Fest will be going on in Amsterdam of all places. Oh my God. I may never come back from that trip.
Lock in your tickets before ticket prices go up. And of course that’s a wrap P how’s that sound as a wrap. We good.
[00:53:15] P: Fantastic.
Let’s call it. We’ll see you all tomorrow. Same time, same place.
