ビットコインは、レガシー金融セクターの炭素排出量の5％未満を放出します

4。従業員数

2013年、私は世界最大の30の銀行を調べ、80/20の法則を使用して、約700万人の従業員数を算出することにより、従業員数をモデル化しようとしました。 。 USBanklocations.comによると、 FIDCが保証する米国の銀行だけで2,065,525人の銀行員 —したがって、私の当初の推定700万人は、今ではひどく過小評価されていると感じています。

国際労働機関によると、「金融および保険活動」は、世界の労働力の1.8％を占めています。 1億人以上がCOVID-19パンデミックで職を失いましたが、 2020年の世界の労働力は33億8700万人で、2019年の34億6800万人から減少しています。労働力の1.8％が金融および保険活動に従事している場合、6,100万人がこのセクターに雇用されています。

5。年間収益（利益）

2014年、私はマッキンゼーの「年間銀行レポート」から2012年の数値を利用し、総利益は3.4兆ドルでした。短い8年間で、パンデミックが発生する中、その最新のレポートは、業界全体の収益が5.52兆ドル、2012年以降の複合年間成長率（CAGR）が6.24％であることを示しています。この金額のうち、1.5兆ドルが利益でした。

図 7： グローバル銀行セクターの収益、2020年（マッキンジー）

保険も必要なので考慮すべきこととして、2018年には、経済協力開発機構（ OECD）は、GDPの9％近くを保険料、つまり5.03兆ドルに費やしました。保険セクターの場合平均収益性は6.3％で、0.317兆ドルの利益を上げることができます。保険ラケットで私たちの友人のために考えを惜しまないでください。おそらく彼らはマージンがはるかに高いように見える銀行に行くべきです！

これにより、合計収益は$ 10.55兆になります。

6。 Square Feet Of Facilities 

From personal experience designing offices in Australia, a good rule of thumb is 10 square meters per employee (about 107 square feet) to satisfy access and egress requirements in commercial building codes. An area of 50 to 150 square feet is recommended for banks by U.S. engineering site Engineering Toolbox, with 10 square meters being recommended for general office space. Using a bottom-of-the-range value of 100 square feet leads to a total area of about 6.1 billion square feet for the world’s 61 million finance and insurance employees.

UCB CoolClimate Network Model: Results

Understandably, the model broke down for revenue figures above $10 trillion, therefore, I rounded the $10.55 trillion down for the sake of this exercise. Plugging the above inputs into the model results in an annual carbon footprint of about 1368 million tons of carbon dioxide per year. This represents about 3.6% of the world’s 38,017 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions in 2019, or just 2.8% of the 49,360 million tons of all greenhouse gases (GHG) emitted in 2016 (more recent data on GHG is not yet available).

It is important to make the distinction between carbon dioxide and GHGs, as carbon dioxide only accounts for about 80% of greenhouse effects, and GHGs include nitrous oxide, fluorinated gases and methane, the latter of which is now a major source of energy for Bitcoin through the turning of vented waste-methane into power for bitcoin mining rigs.

The full details of how the model works are cataloged over 66 pages here. The data is entirely U.S.-based, but if the relatively dirty U.S. grid is good enough to unironically charge the same cars that Musk and Tesla sell, it’s good enough for this study. Effectively, the main driver of the finance sector’s emissions is the sheer amount of transport emissions needed to get tens of millions of people who need to work, many frequently by private jet. I distil the 66 pages of the model methodology into the following seven bullet points:

1. Motor vehicles: Includes fuel consumption, fuel production, vehicle manufacture, vehicle repair and maintenance. Excludes road/other infrastructure construction.
2. Public transportation: Based on U.S. industry sector and revenue benchmarks.
3. Air travel: Based on U.S. industry sector and revenue benchmarks.
4. Energy: Based on U.S. average grid, typically related to energy used by building facilities.
5. Waste: Based on waste per employee per sector, as well as greenhouse gas waste profile per sector.
6. Building construction: Based on total square feet of office space.
7. Procurement: Emissions on things purchased by the sector, using a sample of 589 products, across six categories of food, seven categories of goods and 10 categories of services.

All things considered, the figure of 1,368 million tons of carbon dioxide per year makes sense, as while it is unclear exactly what proportion of GDP can be attributed to the financial sector, estimates range from 7.5% to 10% of Global GDP, so 2.8% of global emissions is not an absurd figure.

Discussion And Future Trends

As at time of writing, The Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index (CBECI) showed an electricity consumption of 133.7 terawatt hours per year. We will assume that Bitcoin’s energy mix is 34.5% renewable, based on the average of Cambridge’s 29% to 39% renewables estimates discussed earlier, giving Bitcoin a carbon intensity of 458 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per megawatt hour. This means that Bitcoin emits 61.2 million tons of carbon dioxide, or, under 5% of what the financial services industry does. In the scheme of global carbon dioxide equivalent emissions, this is only 0.12%.

The below table shows a brief commentary on the seven model inputs of the CCN Model in relation to the finance and insurance sector compared to Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s price and energy use will continue to grow, but its carbon intensity is on a clear downward trajectory, alongside the world’s energy grid. Mining entrepreneurs are innovating in the oil and gas field, and there is more than enough waste methane on earth to power Bitcoin several times over. Instead of just having no emissions at all, Bitcoin could actually become an emissions mitigator. Large established firms such as the Aker Group (and its Bitcoin-specific subsidiary SeeTee.io) have cataloged their commitment to pursue these avenues in their letter to shareholders.

As for the legacy system’s future impact; it’s all up to what you believe, and uninspiring regardless. Will the system fall apart, meaning it becomes cleaner by default due to it contracting in size? Will the system continue to fester and waste, and grow in size (and waste) by 1.5% each year? Regardless, its fate is almost entirely reliant on what happens to the energy mix of the local grid.

This is a guest post by Hass McCook. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.